Australian retail sales rose 4.7% in September 2025 year-on-year, an improvement on August 2025 trends. Growth was stronger across all retail categories. While the RBA has paused on further rate cuts, house price growth looks to be accelerating, which is supportive of better retail sales growth. It should be a decent Christmas for most retailers, just watch for the levels of discounting.

Australian retail sales rose 0.9% in September 2024 year-on-year. This was a deceleration on the 4.0% growth in August. August benefited from Father’s Day timing and promotional activity, which took sales from September. Looking at the September quarter, retail sales were up 2.5% compared long-term trends of 4.9%. Pharmacy, recreational goods and furniture were the non-food categories in growth during September. We see consumers delaying purchases in anticipation of Black Friday deals which means a more subdued October as well.