In our view, the Australian retail sales cycle just passed its peak in the December 2025 quarter at 6% growth. We forecast retail sales growth of 4.5% in 2026. While a moderation from the recent peak, without further house price growth, households will be less willing to use their savings to drive retail spending. Our forecast of 4.5% growth is just below long-term trends. While interest rate movements will be topical, unless there are multiple rises, the shift in the Australian dollar and house prices will be more impactful on retail spending than any rate rise itself.

Nick Scali has provided a Christmas trading update that guides for ANZ sales to grow 10% to 12% in 1H26e. Group net profit after tax guidance has also been upgraded to between $37 and $39 million. The better sales performance in ANZ has driven the upgrade. We lift our revenue forecasts and gross margin expectations, reflecting the supportive backdrop domestically which we expect to slow post FY26e.

We have made modest revisions to our retail sales forecasts. For FY26e, we forecast retail sales growth of 4.0% (prev 3.9%) and for FY27e 4.1% growth (unchanged). Non-food retail spending has been solid in the past six months and the trends are likely to continue into Christmas this year. However, we may see some shift in category performance in the new year as household goods slow, while fashion and takeaway food sales improve. Our upswing in retail sales is muted, which is a function of slowing household income growth and a low savings rates. We continue to monitor house prices closely as a source of upside risk if the wealth effect stimulates the use of previously stored-up savings.

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed our retail sales forecasts for FY26e. The outlook remains constructive for retail spending in FY26e, interest rates are falling and tax cuts are providing stimulus for households, but population growth is slowing and income growth may not rise further from here. We assessed the willingness of consumers to dip into savings to drive retail spending higher.  

Australian retail sales growth has been on an improvement path since March 2024. Retail sales growth for FY25 was 3.3%, better than the 1.8% in FY24. We see retail spending accelerating further to 3.9% in FY26e. Why not a stronger improvement given interest rate cuts? Given tax cuts and strong wages growth during FY25, income growth will actually slow in FY26e making it hard to see much acceleration in retail sales. If retail growth is stronger than our forecast in FY26e, it is likely driven by households dipping into savings if house prices rise substantially.

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed the updated outlook for retail sales and key drivers that could trigger an improvement in spending. In the presentation, we provide an update on the outlook for retail sales, covering feedback on recent trading and expectations for FY25e. We will address which categories have the best potential for volume recovery and how they are navigating price disinflation. We will also address the risk from interest rates on retail. The presentation also includes insights about retailer profitability, inventory levels, and expectations for retail trading at the FY24e results in August.

Australian retail has had a challenging 12 months. We expect we are past the worst for this sales cycle with a gradual improvement in growth over the next 12 months. We forecast retail sales growth of 2.9% in FY25e, up from 1.8% in FY24e. The sectors likely to see the strongest recovery are household goods, supermarkets and online. Some categories are still vulnerable to a correction in volumes such as liquor, cafes & restaurants and fashion. While there is an upswing, it will be mild and leave growth rates below trend for the next three years in our view given the low household savings rate and decelerating population growth.

Metcash reported FY24 EBIT down 1% and, adjusted for acquisitions, it was a similar result in both the first and second-half. The company is actively managing costs to offset weak sales trends and this thematic is likely to be a feature again in FY25e. Metcash’s performance relative to market growth remains impressive and is the primary reason for our positive stance on the stock.

Nick Scali is a furniture retailer that has exhibited consistent growth over the long term. We see the store network growing to 153 over the next four years to FY27e, a compound annual growth rate of 9%. New stores will come in both existing markets and the newly entered UK market. The opportunistic, low-cost entry into the UK sets a base from which to expand the Nick Scali brand into the UK.

Australian retail sales rose 18.6% year on year in September 2022. The three-year compound annual growth rate for September was 8.8%, an acceleration on 7.7% in August. Interestingly, COVID-19 winning categories, hardware and furniture, have started to slow this month. Online sales have continued to fall, down 18.6% year on year, largely reflecting lockdowns last year. The three-year CAGR remains at 27%. We expect overall retail sales will show weakness in November as we lap large Black Friday sales. Retail sales are likely to be softer in 2023 as higher interest rates take effect and savings rates are lower.