Australian retail sales rose 4.7% in September 2025 year-on-year, an improvement on August 2025 trends. Growth was stronger across all retail categories. While the RBA has paused on further rate cuts, house price growth looks to be accelerating, which is supportive of better retail sales growth. It should be a decent Christmas for most retailers, just watch for the levels of discounting.

We transfer coverage of Temple & Webster from Scott Hudson to Garth Francis. In this report, we cover the company’s potential market share penetration, our forecasts for customer acquisition cost and possible category expansion.  Temple & Webster trades at an elevated multiple, reflective of the substantial growth opportunity. Any slowing in sales growth which may come from a competitive threat from industry incumbents or established retailers entering the category, could negatively impact the share price.

Endeavour Group reported 1Q26 sales down 0.3%.  The sales dynamic remains broadly consistent with declines in Retail liquor volumes, but growth in Hotel sales. Endeavour’s commentary suggests gross margin risks are building as it invests in sharper pricing in order to improve sales trends in its retail stores. We expect EBIT to drop by 5% in Retail in FY26e, despite cost savings. The Hotel business should have a better financial year given sales growth, but costs are elevated.

Noumi’s Plant-based Milk division sales were down 1% in 1Q26. Sales of Milklab grew 9.3% and there was modest growth in the export channel but private label contract manufacturing dragged the result down. Grocery customers have lowered shelf price and the expectation is that this will drive a volume recovery.

We forecast Plant-based milk to deliver 1H26e revenue of $95 million, up 1.9% driven by growth in the hotel, restaurants and cafes channel along with a strong result in exports. We forecast a 1H26e EBITDA margin for the division of 25%, down 213bp as Noumi invests in marketing.

Coles Group reported 1Q26 sales growth of 3.9% and an impressive 4.6% comparable sales growth in its Supermarkets. While the result is strong, the momentum is likely to slow as its larger rival Woolworths starts to improve its execution. Coles also faces a 2Q26e hurdle from DC strike benefits in 2Q25 and a diminishing contribution from new stores. We expect Liquor EBIT to decline again in FY26e.

Ampol’s 3Q25 trading update showed weak volumes across all divisions, but the improvement in margins more than offsets the volume decline. Refining margins have lifted by 22% from 2Q25 to 3Q25 and is above the long-term average. In Convenience, shop gross margins increased by 295bp while fuel volumes dropped. We are mindful that the dynamic of falling volumes and rising margins will at some point be difficult to sustain. The approval of the EG acquisition remains a key share price catalyst.

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed our retail sales forecasts for FY26. We addressed the crucial time for retailers that is the festive season and how trends may shift across retail categories. While the macro-economic backdrop is conducive, what will it take to see stronger sales growth?  

Woolworths reported 1Q26 sales growth of 2.7% overall and 1.6% comparable sales growth in its Australian Food segment. The weak sales trend has led Woolworths to increase its promotions, inventory and staffing investment to help stabilise its market share. Sales trends are likely to improve but it will dent profit margins. We forecast Australian Food EBIT growth of 5% for FY26e at the low end of the company’s guidance range. Woolworths’ valuation is appealing but its sales and margin recovery will be gradual and is not without risk.

Australian retail inflation is proving volatile overall, but it is subsiding in retail, which does present downside risk to retail sales growth.  In the September 2025 quarter overall CPI was 3.2% while retail inflation was 2.4%.  Non-food retail inflation has dropped to 0.3% on our calculations, with further downside likely over the next year. The combination of higher inflation across the economy and weaker inflation in retail products is not helpful for retailers. Lower retail inflation constrains sales growth, while the RBA is likely to delay any rate cuts given higher living costs.

Nick Scali’s AGM guidance was a miss to Visible Alpha consensus for 1H26e. However, the trading update showed strong sales momentum in ANZ and a clear path to breakeven in the UK. The ANZ guidance implies either flat gross margins or elevated costs. Sales momentum will need to continue in a highly promotional environment to offset cost growth. The UK is tracking well to reach breakeven and could exit 2H26e with a small profit. The promotional environment in ANZ presents a risk to gross margins.