The national accounts for the September 2025 quarter provide an insight to the strength of the Australian consumer. The ABS has revised up historical income growth and in the September quarter household income rose 6.7%, with consumer spending up 5.7%. Income growth has averaged close to 8% so far in 2025. No wonder discretionary retail spending began growing above trend this year. The challenge is identifying sources that will result in any further acceleration in retail spending in 2026. We expect retail spending to continue to trend near current levels. The upside case relies on lower household savings which is possible if house prices rise double-digits, a low probability now given the lack of interest rate cuts any time soon.