Premier Investments’ AGM trading update gave EBIT guidance for 1H26e of $120 million on a pre AASB-16 basis exclusive of significant items (UK losses for Peter Alexander). Visible Alpha consensus estimates appeared muddied by various factors causing uncertainty around earnings changes. Limited AGM detail provided suggests Peter Alexander continues to perform but sales and gross margins at Smiggle have continued to deteriorate.

Premier Investments reported FY25 Retail EBIT of $183 million, down 24%. FY25 sales performance was divergent for Peter Alexander and Smiggle with the same trend continuing it is trading update. We downgrade EPS by 3.4% and 4.5% in FY26e and FY27e given store closures and continued sales declines at Smiggle. We have also lowered our gross margin given commentary about a competitive market. Cost discipline remains a theme at Premier. Earnings growth will be delivered in FY26e but beyond that success will be determined by a recovery at Smiggle and the success of the Peter Alexander expansion to the UK.