Wesfarmers reported EBIT growth of 8% in 1H26. There was solid growth in its retail business and an outsized earnings improvement in lithium and associate income. The shape of the result raises debate about the likely operating leverage in Bunnings and Kmart, which we expect to be modest, especially as depreciation expenses normalise. We are also likely to see slowing sales trends on a 12-month horizon given weaker household income growth and fading price inflation.

Sentiment around Wesfarmers has dropped away in the past month. This is the retail bellwether stock on the ASX and for the first time the share price fall has outstripped the consensus earnings downward revisions. Are perceptions shifting on Wesfarmers? Perhaps. But we still expect retail sales growth of 4% and EBIT growth of 5%. 

Wesfarmers reported FY25 EBIT of $4,186 million, growth of 5%. The result was helped by higher equity profits and lower depreciation, so EBITDA growth of 3% is a better proxy of the performance in the year. Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks outlook for earnings growth is modest with limited margin expansion likely as depreciation rises and cost savings are largely offset by cost inflation. We expect WesCEF EBIT to fall 15% in FY26e given larger losses for lithium and lower ammonia prices.

Wesfarmers’ strategy sets an expectation for high-single digit earnings growth. However, the reality will still be some way off given growing losses in lithium. There is little room for any competitive risk to Bunnings or Kmart and a lot priced in for growth from these businesses that account for over 85% of enterprise value. Wesfarmers’ strategy continues to shift towards a focus on organic growth. There are opportunities in new product categories for Bunnings and Officeworks, retail media, online marketplaces and production expansion for WesCEF. The message around acquisitions was intriguing – plenty of desire, few viable options.

Bunnings store tour and management presentation provided plenty of initiatives the retailer is pursuing to grow sales and margins, despite its large market share and high return on capital. Bunnings sales per square metre is less than half US peer Home Depot. Bunnings will add product ranges like auto, solar and cleaning to lift sales productivity. The company is positioned for margin expansion when the building sector recovers. For each 1% sales improvement, EBT could rise by 2.3% on our estimates. Bunnings also has margin upside from retail media, which could add $100-200 million in EBT over time.

Wesfarmers reported 1H25 EBIT growth of 5%. It was a solid sales and margin result in Kmart and WesCEF. Bunnings showed better sales trends, although underlying margins dropped slightly. The swing factor for Wesfarmers earnings growth over the next few years remains lithium and the path to profitability is most likely another 18 months away. Investors will need patience as well as optimism that lithium prices can rise from current depressed levels.

Wesfarmers reported modest EBIT growth of 3% in FY24 with low growth for Bunnings, a decline in WesCEF and strong rise in Kmart EBIT the notable factors. Bunnings earnings growth is likely to remain low over the next two years given limited store openings and a challenging demand backdrop. We think Kmart’s margins are near a peak, particularly given price competition with rivals is heating up. WesCEF and lithium become the key driver of Wesfarmers earnings from here and it will take up to three years to see meaningful earnings.

Metcash’s reported 1H23 sales growth of 8% and EBIT growth of 10%. Price inflation drove more than half the sales growth and will remain a key driver over the next 12 months. There will be some normalisation in Hardware sales, but its mix of business supports margins. The Food business will benefit from stock profits and is holding market share. While 1H23 had weak cash flow, the result will mostly normalise in 2H23e and a higher working capital position is the reality of having more hardware and less tobacco sales.

Bunnings accounts for 63% of earnings at Wesfarmers. While a strong business with a leading market position, Bunnings faces challenges in continuing to take market share in our view. The two major areas of share gains are in online and trade. However, in order to succeed in trade and online, Bunnings may need to spend significant capex overhauling its supply chain. At this stage, we do not expect any major shift in supply chain strategy and as a result have modest sales growth and flat margins over the next three years for Bunnings.

Harvey Norman delivered a solid 1H22 result with sales down 6% and profit before tax down 21%, excluding property revaluations. Earnings improved in the final two months of the half as lockdowns eased. The company has good control on costs and inventory levels are lean, but not short. We forecast FY22e PBT down 15%, which implies a smaller 2H22e earnings decline.