Quarterly update: Retail sales forecasts for FY26e

A subdued upswing from here

Published: 23 October 2025

We have made modest revisions to our retail sales forecasts. For FY26e, we forecast retail sales growth of 4.0% (prev 3.9%) and for FY27e 4.1% growth (unchanged). Non-food retail spending has been solid in the past six months and the trends are likely to continue into Christmas this year. However, we may see some shift in category performance in the new year as household goods slow, while fashion and takeaway food sales improve. Our upswing in retail sales is muted, which is a function of slowing household income growth and a low savings rates. We continue to monitor house prices closely as a source of upside risk if the wealth effect stimulates the use of previously stored-up savings.

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