Australian supermarkets & liquor - 1Q26e sales preview

Mind the gap

Published: 28 October 2025

Upcoming quarterly sales for Coles, Woolworths and Endeavour Group will show a continuation of recent themes. Coles Supermarkets winning, receding inflation and weak liquor volumes. We forecast 1Q26e comp sales of 4.2% for Coles and 1.6% for Woolworths. This gap is approaching a level where Coles could also win 2Q26e, an outcome that would intensify the scrutiny on Woolworths Board and management. We forecast Coles Liquor comps at -0.3% and Woolworths at -0.6%. Liquor retail is still in the doldrums, but pubs are back in growth suggesting broader liquor consumption concerns are easing.

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